A Periodic Note Of Hope

A good friend of this blog wrote in with a rather bleak outlook for our country. He said, “Barring a miracle…it’s game over for American democracy.” He ended this way:

Truth doesn’t matter (or exist?) anymore. Donald F***ing Trump is President of the United States. There will be five fiends on the SCOTUS. The November election vote counts will be altered in Moscow. Hide and watch. We are tilting at windmills, friends.

My response:

I’m pessimistic, too, my friend, although not to the degree you are. My national optimism, once very strong during the Obama presidency, has taken a big, big hit, that’s for sure. But I’m not ready to concede just yet. I periodically need to give myself a pep talk and it looks like you need one now. So, here goes.

As you know, I’m not one to believe in miracles. But I do believe in numbers.

I’ll call your attention to a CNN article, which reiterates what I’ve tried to say on this blog: despite all the focusing on and fussing over Tr-mp voters we see in the press, Tr-mp is just not that popular overall:

cnn polling sept 2018

Now, granted he is higher in other polls and granted that even 36% support (most of it comes from Republicans, obviously) is grossly offensive, but still it is a good place for us to find some hope.

Also from that CNN article, party ID most recently finds:

25% identify as Republicans
31% as Democrats
38% as Independent

More than two-thirds of folks don’t identify as Republicans, a number that has been increasing. Bottom line on these stats is:

If you take CNN’s approval rating number and party identification and break it up into segments of the total population, only 20% of the US population over the age of 18 are Republicans who approve of Trump.

Surmountable in the extreme, don’t you think?

Also consider this:

The entire US population was about 318 million in 2016. Subtracting out those under the age of 18, the US voting age population in 2016 was approximately 244,807,000, according to the US Census figures. Exactly 136,669,237 people voted in the presidential election, according to the official results. That means approximately 55.8% of the population voted.

Of those, 62,984,825 voted for Trump and 65,853,516 voted for Hillary Clinton. As percentages, 25.7% of the US voting age population voted for Trump and 26.9% of the US population voted for Clinton.

Another 7,830,896 (3.2% of the US population) voted for third parties. That means 108,137,763, or about 44.2% of the population, didn’t vote.

Perhaps the saddest of all these statistics is that Tr-mp is in power only with the consent of 25.7% of the population and that more than 108 million people weren’t interested enough in their democratic inheritance to bother to vote—and that was in 2016, a presidential election year!

Can we do better? Can we get more people out to vote—even in this off-year—who will vote against Tr-mpism? I have confidence we can. The polls are showing as much all over the place. When more people vote, more Republicans tend to lose. And we need more Republicans to lose if we are to start the long job of, first, putting things back together and, second, restarting progressivism. It’s that simple.

It’s not a miracle. It’s math.

Duane

What Democrats Need To Understand Before 2018

As you will figure out (if you haven’t already) from watching the Vox video below, technology and globalization aren’t going away. They are two powerful forces shaping our collective lives today, two forces that, in purely economic terms, have both good and bad effects. One of the bad effects is the increasingly large money gap between the wealthy and everyone else. Most Democrats believe that government, particularly the federal government, can help mitigate the rapidly worsening income and wealth inequality that is, essentially, a plague on our economic system. Unfortunately, it is Republicans who are in the position to reconstruct our tax code—an instrument of behavior modification—and they are hard at work reconstructing it to favor, even more than it does now, their rich donors. If they are successful, their plan will not only increase the federal debt for no good reason, but leave vulnerable populations even more vulnerable, when Republicans return next year with planned cuts to social programs to address “the debt” they are now ignoring.

There has been a lot of talk about just how Democrats should confront the next wave of elections in 2018 and 2020. Obviously, one domestic policy component of any electoral strategy is to run against Tr-mpism, which means embracing diversity and inclusion and, uh, reality. Another domestic policy component is to put forward a realistic plan for expanding health coverage (can anyone say, “public option”?). And still another component is to articulate an economic vision for the country that addresses income inequality without damaging our prospects for economic growth. In other words, Democrats have to come up with a plan—one that can be simply expressed—that acknowledges the reality of the changes brought upon us by technology and globalization, without trying to roll back the clock to simpler times, when America was the dominant economic force in the world. This won’t be an easy task, but it begins with acknowledging reality (and building on the ideas advanced by the Clinton campaign last year). The video below will help:

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