Austan Goolsbee, chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, appeared on ABC’s This Week on Sunday.
He gamely pointed out that, despite the disappointing jobs numbers released on Friday, during the last six months, “we’ve added a million jobs in the private sector.” He mentioned that the longer trend is more important—”over the last 15 months, we’ve added more than 2 million jobs in the private sector“— than a single month’s data and that there were “stiff headwinds” affecting this past month’s data, including “gas prices,” “the Japanese earthquake,” and “some of the events in Europe.”
Fair enough. He’s right about all that. He’s also right about the government putting more than $1000 in the pockets of 150 million American workers this year, through a reduced payroll tax, which was designed to stimulate the economy. And he’s right about this:
Well, look, what we know is that we have moved a long way from when the economy is in a rescue mode, the private sector’s in freefall, and the government is the only thing standing between us and falling into another Great Depression. We were losing 780,000 jobs a month when the president comes into office. Fast-forward to now: We’ve added 1 million jobs over the last six months.
It’s easy to forget all that, isn’t it? It’s easy to forget the hole we were in, that our government stepped in to prevent another catastrophe.
Right now, in the moment, unemployment seems to be invincible. In fact, there is a powerful idea out there that gets tossed around on television by the pundits. You hear from time to time that this present recovery is a “jobless recovery.” Christiane Amanpour tried promoting that idea but Goolsbee wouldn’t have it:
AMANPOUR: So are you — are you not worried — well, I mean, a report that’s about to come out is saying that this is the longest jobless recovery, it’s going to come out this month, that’ll it take more than 60 months…
GOOLSBEE: It’s not a jobless recovery.
AMANPOUR: … of GDP recovered. It’ll take until 2016.
GOOLSBEE: It’s not a jobless recovery. That is an incorrect phrase. After the last recession, in this comparable period, post-recession, we had lost 100,000 jobs. We’ve added more than 2 million jobs. There’s a major difference between a jobless recovery and a very deep hole that we’re climbing our way out of, and that is what — the position we’re in.
The point is that Goolsbee is right about what he said on ABC’s This Week. We were in an almost unprecedented economic hole and we are climbing out. But no matter how right he is about the technicalities, about the “deep hole,” the truth is that this recovery seems way too slow and way too weak for most Americans, and that is why Obama and the Democrats, despite Republican extremists handing them some winning national issues, are still vulnerable to Republican demagoguery on the economy.
Thus the sluggish economic recovery, just like in the 2010 elections, is the Democrats’ biggest political enemy.
Unfortunately, there is exactly zero chance of the government doing what it needs to do to get the economy moving faster: more stimulus. As Paul Krugman said, on the same program,
If you ask, why are businesses not growing? Businesses aren’t expanding because consumer demand isn’t there, and consumer demand isn’t there because of a combination of high consumer debt and low incomes. So what we really need, in an ideal world — Austan dodged that question — but we really need a new stimulus. We need more move from the Fed. We need — we need to really boot this economy up, not just sort of say, well, we’re getting our house in order and expect it to fix itself.
Krugman knows, of course, that his stimulus fix will never materialize. Republicans would laugh at any attempt to aid the recovering economy.
And so the economy will likely continue to slowly grow, employment will continue to slowly increase, and those same Republicans who refuse to “boot this economy up,” will continue to complain that Obama and the Democrats are failing and that the answer is the same answer they always offer: lower taxes and less regulation and less government.
You know, more hole.
The Erstwhile Conservative: A Blog of Repentance 
sekanblogger
/ June 6, 2011What amazes me id how our government gridlock keeps us down.
For example, the USA innovated solar technology, only to have the Chinese capitalize on manufacturing nearly all of the product!
Why in the hell are we subsidizing big oil companies, when we should be subsidizing start-ups that build solar panels and storage batteries?
Huh?
Common sense demands an answer to this!
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hlgaskins
/ June 6, 2011“Why in the hell are we subsidizing big oil companies, when we should be subsidizing start-ups that build solar panels and storage batteries?”
Because start-ups don’t financially support republicans and the oil companies hate competition.
I agree with your assertion and grow weary of watching our technology, jobs, and children’s careers sold to foreign bidders.
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Jane Reaction
/ June 7, 2011Goolsbee said ‘We’ve added 1 million jobs over the last six months’.That is a complete fabrication. Virtually all of said jobs were in the public sector.
He said: Over the last 15 months, we’ve added more than 2 million jobs in the private sector’. A total lie. The private sector has only added 1.1 million jobs in the past ten years that were not education/healthcare/government jobs.
It is clearly a jobless recovery, if not a jobless future.
.
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R. Duane Graham
/ June 7, 2011Jane,
We’re gonna have to disagree on this one.
As someone somewhere pointed out, it can’t be a recovery at all if there are no jobs. There are jobs being created, just not enough and not fast enough. It is not a jobless recovery, if there are some jobs being created. We wouldn’t call it a recovery if things were stagnant would we?
Your numbers on private sector jobs are not the ones I find. In fact, the overall number he quotes excludes public sector losses, which caused some controversy. If you have a set of numbers that contradicts his numbers, I’d appreciate a source for those. I just can’t find them.
Duane
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ansonburlingame
/ June 8, 2011To all,
Quibbling over numbers of jobs does not face reality. The reality is that home prices continue to go down, the most significant accumlator of wealth for many Americans. Gas prices are going up as result, arguably of the lowering value of the dollar. The cost of food is going up dramatically. The number of rew and GOOD jobs, jobs that pay well is anemic.
Education continues to go down and in the long run will destroy our way of life.
But by far and most important debt and deficit are still out of control. That alone simply scares the hell out of people, investors, and any others that think realistically. Until this country learns to live within it real means, then great concern will prevail.
Simply said, we no longer can buy or spend our way out of economic turmoil. We no longer have the assets to do so as a country. Tax the rich at 90% and we would still have a deficit of well over hundreds of billions of dollars, maybe even a $ Trillion.
Liberals call for more stimulous from the federal government. How much more I ask. Is a $2 Trillion DEFICIT big enough to try to spend our way to recovery, real recovery?
Republicans call for draconian spending cuts that Americans will not tolerate politically. They also refuse to address revenue increases other than growth. Well if a plant is dying on the vine, growth is unlikely no matter how much water you pour on it. The real problem with the plant is that it got so big it “sucked up” all the available nutrients in the surrounding soil.
Rome, repeatedly solved such problems during its long history. It would buy grain from Egypt to “feed the masses” then send out the legions to conquer more areas. The plundered gold would then pay for the grain.
Well that world no longer exists. We must find a different way to solve the age old problems of prosperity creating ever increasing demand for more prosperity while no one agrees to retrench in their demands for “more”.
Historically, wars, famine and “barbarians” take care of such greed on the part of the prosperous. And I see lots of potential wars, hunger and “barbarians” around the world to accomodate us.
Anson
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Jane Reaction
/ June 8, 2011Jane appreciates a rigorous debate.
Anson has nailed down half of the problem in that the GOP refuses to allow any revenue enhancements, including raising the ceiling for Social Security contributions from the current $105,000 to some higher number, the easiest fix of all.
The jobs half of the big picture is actually less complicated than the revenue side. The confusion is caused because of the definition of private vs public jobs.
Basically speaking, the private job sector has almost competely stalled out.
Remember that the private sector includes health care, social assistance and education all of which receive most of their support from the government. So that specific job growth is public, not private.
I am correct in saying that private sector hiring was up a mere 0.6% last year. The health/ed/government sector, including especially military personnel, has added 6.5 million jobs over the past ten years while the private sector has lost 3.4 million jobs.
Goolsbee is calling the supposed 2 million jobs private sector jobs. In reality they are taxpayer- supported jobs which don’t help much of anything except increase the budget deficit.
The chief economist for BusinessWeek, Michael Mandell, pointed out that “public spending has accounted for virtually all new job creation in the past ten years.” He is correct.
As a retired professional in market economics, my sources have been parsed rigorously for accuracy. We were not paid for providing lipservice to our clients.
I highly recommend obtaining a free subscription to CFO Magazine as one accurate forecasting tool. Another very good source, especially on this issue is the blog http://www.georgewashington2.blogspot.com dated 6/5/2011.
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hlgaskins
/ June 8, 2011Jane
“Remember that the private sector includes health care, social assistance and education all of which receive most of their support from the government.”
Even as student populations increase teachers across the country are being laid off. In Florida they’ve been laying teachers off for a couple of years now even though the state has recently passed a new class size amendment restricting the number of students per teacher to a maximum of 22. So I doubt that an increase in teacher hiring is causing an increase in U.S employment statistics. There are however some areas that are increasing such as nursing but nurses can be employed by both the private and public sectors. Another employment seeing growth is for people with computer networking skills which is largely a private sector demand although the government also requires those skills. In fact a large portion of current job demands are in technical or medical areas.
Anson
“Education continues to go down and in the long run will destroy our way of life.”
Education hasn’t gone down but the task of educating has become increasingly difficult. Today’s teachers have tools and skills that weren’t even taught or were available just after WWII, but they also have to contend with a much more difficult population. Try teaching a class with two or three thugs derailing your every attempt to reach those that want to learn. Teachers can’t just throw them out of class or even have them quickly pulled out by resource officers or administrators. Remember that most classes only run for between 50 and 70 minutes. It takes teachers a few minutes to silence a just entering class to begin their lesson. Throw in a couple of smart-mouthed street thugs mandated to be there by courts and there’s little time left to teach. The only solution is to remove these kids from school but what happens if the removal appears racially imbalanced? Avoidance!
Go sign up in your area for a month as a substitute teacher and sample schools from different socioeconomic neighborhoods. Then when you’ve done that, come back and tell me how bad our teachers are. “Seeing something once is better than hearing about it a thousand times.” Lao Tzu
So go see for yourself or admit that your just repeating what you’ve heard from your political leaders and right-wing news organizations.
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ansonburlingame
/ June 9, 2011First Jane,
When you write like that Jane, you come off my inore (” ” key not workin) list and not just because I aree with you about public and private sector jobs.
Private sector jobs has been the enine of the American economy since our birth as a nation. But not now. Why is the question and what must be done to fix that reversal of individuals “makin money” to live?
Hirin more soldiers, sailors or “reulators” won’t hack it in my view. America must hire more “thinkers”, “doers”, people that build or invent “thins” and make ood money doin so
By and lare overnment jobs NEVER stimulate such jobs. In fact overnment jobs squash much of such innovation over “how safe is safe” concerns like the EPA, etc.
Touh problem to solve but liberals o too far in my view to spend overnment money for such purposes, short or lon term.
HL,
I was a substitute teacher for over 8 years in two different MO counties alone. I saw thins that would turn your stomach in many different classrooms, class rooms where teachers were not the leaders, the student were. Talk about terrible situations happenin in such circumstances, unbelievable in my view and systemic, at least in MO.
Many of those teachers were not “bad” teachers. They were simply hamstrun by the “system” that would not allow them to set hih standards and hold every student accountable to such standards. They in part were “scared” teachers, afraid that if they “lower the boom on the malcontents” they would no loner be teachers.
Try ivin a “jerk” an F and see how many hoops a ood teacher must jump throuht to make it stick!!
Anson (aain, my ” ” key is not workin)
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ansonburlingame
/ June 9, 2011HL,
Aain, and if you o back over a couple of years you will find that my overall view of our education problems is the lack of the riht standards in knowlede level and behavior in our collective classrooms.
When “we” discuss education matters, that is my foundation from which I proceed in most of my views. Kids don’t learn the riht thins today, most important the basics of really ood readinin writin and arithmetic and their behavior is attrocious in many, many classes.
No one can learn if a few “jerks” are rulin the roost in any classroom is one problem that I have seen countless times in many different schools.
And it does not take a lot of money to fix those types of problems. It simply takes ood knowlede and leadership from individual teachers in the classrooms in my experience.
But on the other hand how many math teachers today in public education could not score above 650 on a math SAT test today? THAT is a problem as well, in my view and it starts with how we educate our new teachers. They can produce a world class “lesson plan” but have a substantial lack of knowlede or ability to really teach the subject.
Anson
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hlgaskins
/ June 9, 2011Anson
I agree that there needs to be standards for teachers but if they’re expected to teach then they should haven’t have to fight get their point across. I for am in favor of abolishing the college of education, and have been quite vocal about my reasons for it. My first cousin on my mother’s side is a High School Principal in Joplin and he has an ivy league education. I’ve taught in a classroom as a teacher although now my connection to education is largely in the role of behavioral support and evaluation.
My view is that to be a math teacher in public schools a math teacher should have a minimum of a bachelors degree major in math with a specialty in education, and at least a 3.5 GPA. The same goes with language Arts and science. That being said however about 80% of our teachers are pretty darned good with many coming from other careers such as engineering or a field in science. Perhaps some of these right-wing whiners could spend a little time finding answers to the social problems that are impacting education and then watch our children grow.
When the right demeans one of the most important roles played in American they’re also demeaning those teachers who are excellent as well. What is even more sad is that they’re the ones who are leaving education because they’ve grown weary of all the politics being played out by people who know absolutely nothing about education. All this partisan putdown of teachers by the right has thrown their arguments into “the law of unintended consequences,” because they’re actually causing the very thing that they’ve been complaining about.
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